• When food prices begin to surge and levels of unaffordability to the food increase, there is serious discontent among citizens.
• This tends to undermine the levels of confidence between citizens and government.
• Such situations have on several occasions led to unplanned for example elections.
An Economist has advised African countries including Zambia to take seriously International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s warning that surging food and energy prices due to the war in Ukraine may lead to social unrest on the continent.
Speaking in an interview with Money FM News, Partner Siyabutuba said there is need for African nations to be aware about the potential of negative consequences that can come as a result of expensive food prices due to external factors that are obtaining between Russia and Ukraine.
Mr. Siyabutuba explained that when food prices are increasing, with high unaffordability levels, there is serious displeasure among citizens and this tends to undermine confidence levels between people and government.
“African countries Zambia inclusive should be worried about that analysis by the IMF. It basically means that when food prices begin to surge and levels of unaffordability to the food increase, there is serious discontent among citizens and this tends to undermine the levels of confidence between citizens and government and many times this has led to demand for change of government,” Mr. Siyabutuba said.
He stated that such situations have on several occasions led to unplanned for elections where citizens demand change of government and riots have taken place.
“Because of unrest, early elections have been called for, coups and riots have taken place, and certain evil elements within governments have taken advantage of situations like that so it’s a red flag, where we need to be aware about the potential of negative consequences that can come as a result of expensive prices of food that can come as result of these external factors that are obtaining right now between Russia and Ukraine,” he stated.
And Mr. Siyabutuba noted that food is a key aspect in trying to analyse the impact of the cost of living and this is why IMF is warning Africa to be careful about the cost of food because it can lead to serious discontent among citizens.
“The most notorious element in any cost of living is food and food affects everyone and this is why it is a very key and very important ingredient in trying to analyse the impact of the cost of living and that is exactly what IMF is trying to warn Africa to be careful about the cost of food because it can lead to serious discontent among citizens,” he noted.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that surging food and energy prices stoked by the war in Ukraine may lead to social unrest in Africa.
The IMF said in its annual Regional Outlook for Africa that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in African countries in 2021 was 4.5 percent, an upward revision from the earlier estimation of 3.7 percent, but this is expected to slow to 3.8 percent over 2022.
